Regional governments key to next round of national carbon-cutting plans
- The number of companies, cities, and regions with net zero targets increased, up 23%, 8% and 28%, respectively, since the previous Net Zero Shtocktake in June 2023.
- However, more than 40% of major non-state and subnational actors still have no emissions reduction targets.
- On measures of integrity, there has been limited improvement in national, subnational and company net zero strategies over the past eighteen months.
- Regional governments should improve vertical alignment with national goals on short and long-term target setting, including policies that support net zero implementation.
- Members of the Race to Zero, led by the UN Climate Change High-Level Champions, perform better than non-members on key elements of good net zero practice.
- The number of company net zero targets meeting all minimum levels of integrity has increased 63% since June 2023, but the absolute number remains low (61 of 1,145).
23rd September 2024: As the climate crisis accelerates, the Net Zero Stocktake 2024 identifies a commitment gap across cities, states and regions, which is holding back the necessary economy-wide transition.
The Net Zero Tracker’s annual assessment of the intent and integrity of global climate commitments, shows only a modest increase in net zero targets set by subnational governments (states and regions, and cities) in the past year.
- 26% (185 of 706) of states and regions in the NZT database have net zero targets, collectively covering a population of 2.2 billion, up from 497 million in December 2020.
- 23% (271 of 1186) of major cities have set net zero targets, which represents a total population of 793 million, up from 640 million in December 2020.
- Most city-level net zero targets are in ‘high income’ countries (178 of 271 city-level net zero targets). Only 11% of the cities in lower income countries have net zero targets (93 of 842).
The initial phases of the net zero journey largely centred on setting national targets and on aligning companies with the Paris Agreement; today net zero targets are mainstream at the country-level and are a corporate norm.
- Net zero targets set by nations and self-governing territories (including the European Union and Taiwan) represent at least 87% of global GHG emissions, 93% of global GDP and 88% of global population.
- Nearly 60% of the 1,977 publicly-listed companies that NZT tracks have set net zero targets. Weighted by revenue, 67% have set net zero targets.
Some bright spots of progress can be seen in the subnational governments of 14 major-emitting nations. For example:
- In India, 14 of the 20 regions with a net zero target have a target year that is earlier than India’s national 2070 net zero target. These targets steer climate action on the ground and assure top-level ambition.
- In the United States, 19 states have set net zero targets, five of which have earlier net zero target years than the federal government’s 2050 target. In addition to the 18 states with net zero targets, nine states have emission reduction targets of 80% for 2050.
- In Mexico, which does not have a national-level net zero target, 11 of its 32 states have long-term climate targets, three of which are net zero targets.
However, the report calls for all cities, states and regions to translate their wide-ranging authority to establish and enforce policies and regulations into clear net zero plans.
Sybrig Smit, NewClimate Institute Analyst and the report lead, said:
“The powers of subnational governments, to establish and enforce regulations, in areas ranging from urban planning, to transport, to waste and health, are critical to smoothing the path to net zero.
“If subnational powers are coupled with clear net zero commitments, it sends a clear signal to markets, and raises the ceiling of ambition at the national – and in turn the global level.”
Frederic Hans, NewClimate Institute Analyst, said:
“Companies like Volvo Group and Google, and countries like Costa Rica are leading the way with innovative net zero strategies. Their experiences and the lessons they’ve learned to further improve their strategies set a powerful example for others to follow.”
“Peer learning will be crucial in shaping effective net zero strategies that align with the latest scientific insights and developments. This approach is essential as we navigate this pivotal decade in the fight against climate change.”
Net zero target-setting integrity remains low – companies lead on upgrades
The Stocktake finds an increasing number of robust non-state (regions, cities and company) net zero targets and implementation plans, but with persistent gaps – and slow progress in net zero target integrity across all non-state entity types over the last two years.
The quality of the net zero commitments, measured against accepted integrity criteria, is only met by up to 5%, 4% and 3% of companies, cities and regions, respectively. However, the absolute number of companies that met all criteria increased by 62% compared with eighteen months ago.
The world’s largest alliance of 14,500 non-state and subnational entities, the Race to Zero campaign, led by the UN Climate Change High-Level Champions, was found to be a driver of net zero target-setting integrity.
- The fraction of corporate and subnational net zero targets meeting the robustness criteria is considerably higher among Race to Zero members for states and regions, cities, and companies.
- All those cities that met all robustness criteria were found among Race to Zero members.
John Lang, Lead, Net Zero Tracker (The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit), said:
“National net zero targets are our bridge to the clean-energy future.
“To maintain integrity, the chain-links inside that superstructure — the targets and plans of cities, regions and companies — must themselves have integrity.
“Some links are strong, others are weak, and too many are missing altogether.”
40% of non-state and subnational entities have opted out of addressing the climate challenge
Strikingly, more than 40% (1,700 / 3,870) of major non-state and subnational governments and companies are operating without any kind of emissions reduction target.
- The number of companies that do not have any emissions target reduced substantially from 734 last year to 495 — 40% of them are Chinese companies.
- Companies without emissions targets include BYD, Fox Corporation, Shimano, Hertz, Nintendo, and Berkshire Hathaway.
- Nearly half (48) of the world’s largest 100 private companies have opted out of setting climate targets.
Camilla Hyslop, Data Lead, Net Zero Tracker (University of Oxford): said:
“The large number of entities that continue to opt out of the globally-agreed mission to curtail climate change leaves their home countries and global supply chains highly vulnerable to transition risk.”
“By incentivizing and supporting companies and sub-national governments to set rigorous net zero targets and plans, countries can boost the credibility of national climate goals.”
The Stocktake findings are highly relevant to the current global goal to halve emissions by 2030, as well as the development of new post-2030 – 2035 climate commitments, so-called ‘NDCs’, which national governments will announce by early 2025.
Mark Watts, Executive Director, C40 commented:
“Leadership on climate at the local level is palpably strong, fast and nimble. Mayors and other subnational leaders are the ‘doers’ when it comes to climate action.
“Almost all C40 cities have and are delivering on 1.5°C-compliant action plans, setting a benchmark for other subnational governments to follow.
“There is a massive opportunity for the carbon cutting strategies and actions of cities to be translated into national net zero commitments. Most national commitments do not currently account for, or leverage the potential of cities. National governments need cities to be able to succeed and achieve targets, so initiatives like the Coalition for High Ambition Multilevel Partnerships (CHAMP) for Climate Action, present a golden opportunity for swift and powerful multi-level climate action.”
Nehmat Kaur, Director of Under2 Coalition and Subnational Governments, Climate Group said:
“States are the link between what’s written in NDCs, and what is actually happening on the ground. If we want to get any closer to a net zero emissions world by 2050, we need to recognise subnational governments as not just key players, but the stars of the show. They have a critical role in implementing credible net zero targets.”
“Covering over a fifth of the global population and 50% of global GDP, the Under2 Coalition’s collective power allows for greater direct impact, building community buy-in for climate action along the way. We have seen this impact first hand, in our two-decade track record working with states.”
“As global emissions rise at an alarming rate, we cannot afford to sit back, more action is needed. While we welcome the report findings, we urge national governments to partner with states and regions on robust targets and clear pathways to reach them.”
Razan Al Mubarak, UN Climate Change High-Level Champion for COP28, said:
“Halving global emissions by 2030 and reaching a resilient net-zero future by 2050 requires an all-of-society approach to delivering net-zero targets.
I welcome the findings of the Net Zero Stocktake that show an increase in target setting, improvements in integrity and am pleased to see that Race to Zero members perform better on key areas of good practice. However, we cannot rest – we must continue to work as a climate community on mobilising commitments, increasing action and embedding rigour.
“We need to scale up policies and regulations, enhance systems of accountability, and ensure that nature and inclusion are centred in a just transition. Race to Zero will continue to play a leading role in this global effort.”
Dr. Steve Smith, Executive Director, Oxford Net Zero and CO2RE, said:
It’s two years since the UN Secretary General launched a report into net zero pledges, saying “we must have zero tolerance for net-zero greenwashing.” And yet our findings show barely any improvements. Fewer than five percent of all the pledges by cities, regions and companies meet all our criteria for integrity. That number has risen by just 1% since last year.
But there are a few bright spots of leadership around the world. Ambitious and honest action is possible. We point to examples in our report, with the hope that there will be many more in the near future.”
Thomas Hale, Professor of Global Public Policy at the Blavatnik School, who co-led the report, said:
“Net zero leaders may now be grappling with the hard work of implementation, but they are in a far better place than those who, remarkably, have yet to position themselves for a successful transition.
Major companies that have yet to set a net zero target are a time bomb for their employees and investors and a mounting financial risk for the economy overall—as well as the planet we all live on.”
About the Net Zero Stocktake analysis:
The Net Zero Stocktake is the world’s most comprehensive view of whole-economy efforts toward net zero. The analysis assessed net zero commitments against integrity criteria that are recommended by the UN Expert Group, International Organization for Standardization (ISO), and the Race to Zero campaign, led by the UN Climate Change High- Level Champions. The analysis assesses the prevalence of targets and their robustness, but not implementation and progress.
Specific analysis was conducted of net zero target setting in the subnational governments of 14 major emitting nations at differen stages of economic development, collectively responsible for more than three-quarters of global emissions: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, South Africa, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States of America (USA).
About Net Zero Tracker (NZT):
The Net Zero Tracker is the most comprehensive and up-to-date database of net zero commitments made by nations, states & regions, cities and major companies. It includes:
- all UNFCCC member states and a selected number of territories;
- subnational states & regions in the 25 largest emitting countries;
- all cities around the world with populations over 500,000;
- publicly listed companies that were listed in the Forbes Global 2000 in 2020;
- 100 of the world’s largest private companies.
It only uses information in the public domain, a decision taken in part to encourage entities to be open.
Using a combination of automated web data-scraping and manual searching by volunteer data analysts working in a range of languages, the NZT gathers and collates data on the status of net zero targets and robustness parameters across 4000+ entities. Parameters include the existence of interim targets, intentions regarding offsetting, the existence of a published plan, and what the target covers in terms of GHGs and emission scopes.
NZT is an independent research consortium, comprising The Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU); Data-Driven EnviroLab (UNC); NewClimate Institute; and Oxford Net Zero.
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